The implementation of SESAR will result in an environment using extensive and intensive planning. Planning enables addressing complexity imbalances and the reduction of potential conflicts. Yet, accurate planning requires quantifying forecast accuracy at all planning horizons. To achieve this, the main challenge is the combination of trajectories with different levels of accuracy. This challenge can be addressed using a quality indicator giving the forecast accuracy and combining uncertainties associated with traffic and trajectory predictions.
COPTRA proposes an efficient method to build probabilistic traffic forecasts on the basis of flight trajectory predictions within a Trajectory Based Operations (TBO) environment. Its main goal is using the improvements brought to Trajectory Prediction by the future TBO environment to bring measurable improvements to Traffic Prediction in ATC Planning.
COPTRA’s objective is refined in 3 sub-objectives corresponding to its research work packages:
- Define the concept of probabilistic trajectory and its prediction (WP2).
- Using the definition of probabilistic trajectory, define the concept of probabilistic traffic situation and study how probabilistic traffic situations can be built by combining probabilistic trajectories (WP3).
- Apply probabilistic traffic situations to ATC planning (WP4).
The management work packages encompass project management (WP1), results in dissemination (WP6) and project conclusion (WP5).